“I do not mean to imply that my median timeline to High Weirdness or everyone potentially dying remains unchanged at 2029... while I did find 2025 advances very impressive and impactful, I do think in terms of timelines events last year should on net move us modestly farther back on full High Weirdness expectations to something like 2030, still with high error bars, but that number is loosely held.”
Author of the 'Don't Worry About the Vase' newsletter; AI writer and forecaster
Mowshowitz lengthened his median for 'full High Weirdness' from 2029 to roughly 2030 after reviewing 2025's advances, explicitly holding the number loosely; the target year has not arrived.