“My current median time-to-crazy in this sense is roughly 2031, but with very wide uncertainty and error bars... and I don't feel I would 'have any right to complain' if the outcome was very far off from this in either direction.”
Author of the 'Don't Worry About the Vase' newsletter; AI writer and forecaster
Said Oct 27, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2031Don't Worry About the Vase, 'Asking (Some Of) The Right Questions', October 27, 2025
Consistent with his September 9, 2025 post, where he wrote that 'if you put a gun to my head for a typical AGI definition I'd pick 2031,' loosely held; target year has not arrived.