AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“On the prediction that a real-time generative video game becomes 2026's most-watched title on Twitch: 'I'll go ahead and take the no here. Too soon. Generative games are not as interesting as people think, and they're doubling down on the 2024 mistake... GPT-5-Pro has this at 14%, Sonnet says 3%. I think Sonnet is a bit overconfident, let's say 5%... Not gonna happen.'”

Author of the 'Don't Worry About the Vase' newsletter; AI writer and forecaster

A rebuttal of the State of AI Report 2025's 2026 prediction; resolvable from Twitch's most-watched-title data at the end of 2026.