CapabilitiesCorrect
“Dario Amodei says AI will be writing 90% of the code in 6 months and almost all the code in 12 months. I am with Arthur B here, I expect a lot of progress and change very soon but I would still take the other side of that bet.”
Author of the 'Don't Worry About the Vase' newsletter; AI writer and forecaster
Said Mar 13, 2025Deadline Mar 31, 2026Don't Worry About the Vase, 'AI #107: The Misplaced Hype Machine', March 13, 2025
Neither leg of Amodei's forecast came true: by September 2025 AI-written code was, in Zvi's own words, 'a lot less than 90%', and by March 2026 AI was nowhere near writing essentially all code. Zvi reviewed his call in September 2025: 'On reflection yes I was correctly betting no, but that was an easy call.'