“On 'A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B' in 2026: 'I think this is ambitious, but variance here is really high and the correlation between the two numbers is large... Maybe 25%? Manifold says 23% so that seems good.'”
Author of the 'Don't Worry About the Vase' newsletter; AI writer and forecaster
Said Oct 10, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2026Don't Worry About the Vase, '2025 State of AI Report and Predictions', October 10, 2025
Resolves at the end of 2026 on whether a major retailer reports over 5% of online sales via agentic checkout while AI agent ad spend reaches $5B; Zvi puts it at roughly 25%.