AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“I believe you will see a chatGPT level language model (on at least some metrics) on a mobile phone next year.”

Founder and CEO of Stability AI

Said Aug 26, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2024Emad Mostaque on X, 26 August 2023

By mid-2024 phone-sized models met the bar on the stated 'at least some metrics' basis: Microsoft's Phi-3-mini (3.8B, April 2024) was demonstrated running locally on an iPhone and scored at or above GPT-3.5/ChatGPT level on benchmarks such as MMLU, followed by Llama 3.2 1B/3B and Gemma 2 on-device releases before the end of 2024.