AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“GPT-5 by itself won't be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks. Without external aids it won't be able to drive a car reliably; it won't be able to reliably guide a robot like Optimus to be anything like as versatile as Rosie the Robot. Reasoning about the physical, psychological and mathematical world will still be unreliable, fluent hallucinations will still be common, and 'alignment' will continue to be a critical, unsolved problem.”

Cognitive scientist, Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neural Science at NYU

GPT-5 launched in August 2025 and was not an AGI: it could not drive a car or run a humanoid robot, hallucinations and reasoning failures persisted, and alignment remained open. The rollout was poorly received — Sam Altman conceded OpenAI had 'totally screwed up' the launch — and Marcus's assessment that it 'came late and fell short' was echoed by many observers.