AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“They no longer have anything like a clear technical lead. GPT-5 is unlikely to be ahead of the pack for more than a couple months. (And Grok 4 Heavy is already better on the ARC-AGI-2 measure.)”

Cognitive scientist, NYU professor emeritus, AI critic and author

Said Aug 8, 2025Deadline Oct 8, 2025Post on X (@GaryMarcus), 8 August 2025

GPT-5 never held an uncontested lead: Grok 4 already beat it on ARC-AGI-2 at launch, and competing frontier releases within weeks to a few months (Anthropic's Claude 4.5 line in late September and Google's Gemini 3 Pro in November 2025) took the top of major leaderboards, prompting OpenAI's own GPT-5.1 refresh.