AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“No single system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025. I wouldn't be shocked if none were reliably solved by the end of the year.”

Cognitive scientist, Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neural Science at NYU

A year-end review of 2025 AI predictions judged this correct, concluding that at most one of the ten tasks (a reading-comprehension-style item) was arguably passed, and certainly not four by any single system.