“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent (chip-making companies will continue to do well though, in supplying hardware to the companies that build the models; shovels will continue to sell well throughout the gold rush.)”

Gary MarcusResearcher

Cognitive scientist, Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neural Science at NYU

Through 2025 the leading model developers continued to run large operating losses while revenue growth was funded by external capital, and the hardware suppliers — Nvidia above all — captured the profits; the 'shovel-sellers do best' pattern held. Both halves of the prediction came true.