“Bet with Miles Brundage at 10:1 odds: if AI systems can perform 8 of the 10 specified tasks by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles' choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary's choice.”
Cognitive scientist, author and generative-AI skeptic; Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neural Science at NYU
Said Dec 31, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2027Marcus on AI (Substack), 'Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet', 31 December 2024 (agreement dated 30 December 2024)
Tasks include watching an unseen movie and following plot twists, constructing bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural-language spec, and similar; tracked on Metaculus and Manifold. Marcus's separate end-of-2025 checkpoint (no system solving more than 4 of the 10) was judged correct, but the bet itself does not resolve until after 2027.