AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“AGI really could disrupt the world. But GPT-5 is not going to do any of that; it's not going to be smart enough to revolutionize fusion; it's not going to be smart enough to revolutionize nanotech, and starships most definitely aren't going to be here in 2024.”

Cognitive scientist, NYU professor emeritus, AI critic and author

GPT-5 did not even ship until August 2025, and through the end of 2024 there was no AI-driven revolution in fusion or nanotech and no interstellar starships. Marcus's deflationary call was borne out.