“$100,000 says AGI will not arrive by 2029: if any single AI system satisfies at least three of my five criteria (e.g., watching a movie and reliably explaining plot and motivations; reading a novel and answering questions about it; working as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen; writing bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural-language spec; deriving mathematical proofs from natural language) by then, Musk wins; otherwise I do.”
Cognitive scientist, Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neural Science at NYU, founder of Geometric Intelligence and Robust.AI
Said May 31, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2029Marcus on AI (Substack), 'Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI', 31 May 2022
Musk never accepted; others (including Vivek Wadhwa, who matched it) raised the wager to $500,000, and Kevin Kelly offered to host it at Long Bets. Metaculus opened markets on several of the five criteria. Resolution due after 2029.