AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“The objective is to bring 40% of Taiwan's entire chip supply chain and production to the United States within President Trump's current term — under a deal in which Taiwanese chip and tech companies invest at least $250 billion in U.S. capacity, with another $250 billion in government-guaranteed credit: "That's what they get if they don't build in America, the tariff's likely to be 100%."”

U.S. Secretary of Commerce

Taiwan's Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun publicly called the 40% relocation target "impossible" in February 2026, and analysts broadly agree; resolves by the end of Trump's term.