AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“When I walked into this department, the United States of America had 2 percent of the market. We were producing 2 percent of the chips we need. And my objective when I leave is 40 percent. [Reaching roughly 40% domestic semiconductor production by the end of President Trump's current term, which would take north of $500 billion in local investment.]”

U.S. Secretary of Commerce

Said Sep 28, 2025Deadline Jan 20, 2029NewsNation interview, reported by CNBC, September 30, 2025

Resolves at the end of Trump's term (January 2029) on the share of U.S.-consumed chips produced domestically; analysts including AEI's Derek Scissors immediately called the goal unachievable in that window.