“My AGI median is 2031: 'My SC [superhuman coder] median was 2030, higher than the within-model median because I placed some weight on the model being confused... I shifted my median back by a year from SC to get one for TED-AI/AGI.'”
Said Apr 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2031AI Futures Project, 'Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027' (January 2026), documenting Lifland's own median history
Recorded as a 50% median for top-expert-dominating AI/AGI. Lifland has since pushed his median later (2033 in July 2025, 2035 in November 2025, ~January 2035 as of January 2026), but the April 2025 median of 2031 is the claim on record.