AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“AGI is still quite a few years away. Today a lot of people talk about AGI — they're saying it's probably two years away, probably five years away. I think it is more than 10 years away... today's most powerful models are far from that. And how do you achieve that level of intelligence? We don't know.”

Co-founder, Chairman and CEO of Baidu

Said May 22, 2024Deadline Dec 31, 2034VivaTech conference, Paris, reported by CNBC, May 23, 2024

Claim resolves only after 2034: Li's position is that no AGI (AI as smart as or smarter than a human) arrives before roughly mid-2034.