“I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028. Now, it's just a 50% chance. I'm sure what's going to happen is we're going to get to 2029 and someone's going to say, 'Shane, you were wrong.' Come on, I said 50% chance.”
Co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, Google DeepMind
Said Oct 26, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2028Dwarkesh Podcast — 'Shane Legg (DeepMind Founder) — 2028 AGI, superhuman alignment, new architectures', October 26, 2023
Deadline is end of 2028. Legg has restated this 50%-by-2028 estimate consistently since first making it in the 2000s, and as of 2026 he still frames 'minimal AGI' as roughly two years out.