AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“My more serious attempt at an AGI prediction was a probability of 50% by 2028 and 90% by 2040, which I've roughly held since 1999 and have repeated in many places.”

Co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, DeepMind

Said Aug 24, 2021Deadline Dec 31, 2040X (Twitter) post by @ShaneLegg, 24 August 2021

Legg's long-standing distribution puts 50% on AGI by 2028 and 90% by 2040; both horizons are still in the future.