AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“I'd also like to add to this prediction that I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years. By this I mean a system with basic vision, basic sound processing, basic movement control, and basic language abilities, with all of these things being essentially learnt rather than preprogrammed. It will also be able to solve a range of simple problems, including novel ones.”

Co-founder, DeepMind Technologies

Said Dec 2011Deadline Dec 31, 2019Vetta Project blog, 'Goodbye 2011, hello 2012', December 2011

By the end of 2019 impressive learned systems existed separately for vision, speech, control and language (e.g. GPT-2, AlphaStar), but no single system combined all four modalities with novel problem solving; the PredictionBook entry tracking this claim was judged wrong on 31 December 2019. Integrated multimodal agents such as Gato and GPT-4V only arrived in 2022–2023.