AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

CapabilitiesPartially correct
“Over the last year computer power has increased as expected, and so it looks like we're still on target to have supercomputers with 10^18 FLOPS around 2018.”

Co-founder, DeepMind Technologies

Said Dec 2010Deadline Dec 31, 2018Vetta Project blog, 'Goodbye 2010', December 2010

In 2018 ORNL's Summit reached roughly 1.9 exaops on a mixed-precision genomics application, but sustained double-precision exascale (10^18 FLOPS on HPL) was not achieved until Frontier hit 1.1 exaflops in May 2022 — about four years later than 'around 2018'.