“My prediction for the last 10 years has been for roughly human level AGI in the year 2025... This year I've tried to come up with something a bit more precise. In doing so what I've found is that while my mode is about 2025, my expected value is actually a bit higher at 2028. Perhaps more useful is my 90% credibility region, which from my current belief distribution comes out at 2018 to 2036.”
AI researcher, Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, UCL; later co-founder and Chief AGI Scientist, Google DeepMind
Legg's log-normal AGI distribution (mode 2025, mean 2028, 90% range 2018–2036) remains open; he has restated the 2028 expectation repeatedly since.