“So here's my prediction: inflation-adjusted GDP in the third quarter of 2026 will not be more than 3.5% higher than the third quarter of 2025 — i.e. we will not see the above-average growth an AI-powered takeoff would imply.”

Resolves against BEA real GDP for Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025; the advance estimate is not published until late October 2026.