AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“Before we get all those things to work together, and then on top of this, have systems that can learn hierarchical planning, hierarchical representations, systems that can be configured for a lot of different situations at hand, the way the human brain can, all of this is going to take at least a decade and probably much more... So it's not just around the corner.”

Chief AI Scientist at Meta; NYU professor; Turing Award laureate

A lower-bound claim: human-level AI arrives no sooner than ~2034. It is falsified only if a system with human-level, configurable, hierarchically-planning intelligence appears before then.