AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“[On how much time is left before AI poses catastrophic risk:] We might have one year, two years, five years. I don't think we have 10 years.”

Co-founder and CEO of Conjecture; co-founder of EleutherAI

Deadline is January 2034; as of 2026 no catastrophic AI outcome has occurred, but the claim's outer bound has not yet been reached.