“The AI datacenters to be built in 2025 will suffer $40 billion of annual depreciation, while generating somewhere between $15 and $20 billion of revenue.”

The capex/depreciation arithmetic held up directionally — 2025 AI capex landed near his ~$400 billion estimate, implying roughly $40 billion of annual depreciation on a 10-year life (and more on the 3-6 year schedules now used) — and pure-play AI revenue for calendar 2025 was in his range (OpenAI reported $13.07 billion of 2025 revenue, Anthropic roughly $9 billion run-rate exiting the year). But industry-wide AI revenue including hyperscaler AI cloud lines was estimated well above $20 billion, so the revenue side of the comparison is disputed.