“That's not to say that artificial intelligence won't have huge economic impacts. But history suggests that they won't come quickly. ChatGPT and whatever follows are probably an economic story for the 2030s, not for the next few years.”
Nobel laureate economist; then New York Times columnist; Distinguished Professor, CUNY Graduate Center
Said Mar 31, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2029Paul Krugman, 'A.I. May Change Everything, but Probably Not Too Quickly,' The New York Times, March 31, 2023 (quoted by Fortune, April 3, 2023)
Resolves at the end of the 2020s: the test is whether large measured macroeconomic effects of generative AI arrive before 2030 or only in the 2030s.