“Unfortunately, it seems like the intelligence explosion will be happening in 2027 after all... mashing together all these factors, let's say May 2027 for SAR median, i.e., 50% chance of Superhuman AI Researcher by May 2027. (Previously Daniel, the most bullish of us, assigned a 50% chance of SAR before 2029.)”

Median forecast, prompted by METR's report of roughly 1.7x AI-attributed acceleration in Anthropic's R&D; resolves on whether a Superhuman AI Researcher exists by May 2027.