“Holden wins $5000 if, by the end of 2044, there has been at least one year for which it is plausible — according to Bryan Caplan — that at least one of the following was true: Real Gross World Product was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at least 4x the real GWP of 2024. Or: real GWP was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at most 1/2 the real GWP of 2024. [Karnofsky takes the AI-transforms-the-economy side at 5:1 odds.]”
Co-founder of GiveWell and Open Philanthropy; member of technical staff at Anthropic
Said Jul 21, 2025Deadline Dec 31, 2044Bet On It (betonit.ai), 'My Feast-or-Famine AI Bet with Holden Karnofsky', July 21, 2025
Resolves at the end of 2044; Karnofsky risks $1,000 against Caplan's $5,000, implying roughly 17% odds on a dramatic AI-driven boom or collapse in gross world product.