AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

CapabilitiesIncorrect
“It is a solvable problem. I would bet you any sum of money you can get the hallucinations right down into the line of human-expert rate within months. So I'm not really that worried about that problem overall. (Gary Marcus publicly offered $100,000 on the other side; Hoffman never took the bet.)”

Co-founder of LinkedIn and Inflection AI; partner at Greylock

Said Sep 7, 2023Deadline Mar 31, 2024TIME100 AI interview with Reid Hoffman, TIME, 7 September 2023

Hallucination rates did not fall to human-expert levels within months; by mid-2024 leading models still hallucinated at rates far above domain experts, and hallucination remained a headline reliability problem well beyond early 2024. Hoffman also declined Marcus's $100,000 offer to formalize the bet.