“Surveying 2,778 AI researchers: the median respondent gives a 5% probability that advanced AI causes human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species, and the aggregate forecast gives a 50% chance that high-level machine intelligence — machines able to accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers — arrives by 2047.”

The HLMI component resolves in 2047; the survey's aggregate timeline had already shortened by roughly 13 years versus the same survey in 2022.