AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years (i.e. by about 2061, counting from the 2016 survey) and of automating all human jobs in 120 years.”

Lead author, 'When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts'; researcher, AI Impacts

Aggregate forecast of 352 machine learning researchers surveyed in 2016; North American respondents gave 74 years versus 30 years for respondents from Asia.