“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as writing high-school essays (by 2026) — i.e. a 50% chance that machines will 'write an essay for a high school history class that would receive high grades and pass plagiarism detectors.'”

Achieved ahead of the deadline: a February 2023 scoring attempt judged ChatGPT history essays below average, but GPT-4-class models from 2023 onward routinely produce high-scoring high-school history essays that plagiarism detectors do not flag.