“More than $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by the end of 2030, if AI providers continue their current pace of capital spending: 'Through 2030, AI data center owners would need to generate a cumulative $8.5 trillion in revenue to cover announced capital spending, financing costs, and a 12% return on invested capital' — while enterprise and consumer AI revenue attributable to AI data centers is forecast to reach no more than $3.6 trillion over the same period.”

Gartner's figures imply roughly $1 trillion of AI infrastructure spend in 2026 plus $6 trillion from 2027-2030; resolvable against actual impairments and AI revenue through the end of 2030.