AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“Revenue this year will grow over 3X. So about $13 billion in revenue from about $4 billion last year. So it's tripling on a very big base as well.”

Chief Financial Officer, OpenAI

OpenAI's audited full-year 2025 revenue came in at $13.07 billion, essentially exactly the ~$13 billion Friar projected (on a $38.5 billion net loss). The 'over 3X' framing was looser: OpenAI later reported roughly $6 billion of 2024 revenue rather than the ~$4 billion base cited, implying about 2.2x growth.