“In the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament, the median superforecaster put the probability of AI-caused human extinction by 2100 at 0.38%, while the median AI domain expert put it at 3% — and the two groups did not converge after months of debate and the exchange of arguments.”
Research organization co-founded by Philip Tetlock; 'Forecasting Existential Risks: Evidence from a Long-Run Forecasting Tournament', FRI Working Paper #1
Said Jul 10, 2023Deadline Dec 31, 2100Forecasting Research Institute, 'Forecasting Existential Risks: Evidence from a Long-Run Forecasting Tournament', FRI Working Paper #1, July 10, 2023 (current version August 8, 2023)
Forecasts were elicited from 169 superforecasters and domain experts during the tournament run from June to October 2022, before ChatGPT's release; the target horizon is 2100, so the forecast cannot be resolved for decades.