CapabilitiesIncorrect
“Domain experts and superforecasters assigned only an 8.6% and 2.3% probability, respectively, to an AI system winning a gold medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad on or before 2025; their median forecasts put it after 2030.”
Forecasting research organization (chief scientist Philip Tetlock); Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament of 80 superforecasters and 89 domain experts
Said Oct 31, 2022Deadline Dec 31, 2025Forecasting Research Institute, Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (forecasts finalized 31 October 2022), reported in 'Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament'
In July 2025 both Google DeepMind and OpenAI reported gold-medal-level performance at IMO 2025 — five years earlier than the median expert forecast and ten years earlier than the median superforecaster forecast, and an outcome both panels had rated very unlikely by 2025.