“The total progress we'll see until the end of 2025 will be worth more than 2 years of algorithmic progress, i.e. more than the progress we've seen since GPT-4 when compute expenditures have been fairly flat.”

2025 did deliver the predicted compute scale-up and very large capability gains (reasoning models, IMO gold, agentic coding, faster METR time-horizon doubling), and his companion ~$12B OpenAI revenue estimate was close; whether 2025 alone exceeded all progress since GPT-4 is not objectively measurable.