“The model estimates a 10% chance of transformative AI — defined as 'AI that if deployed widely, would precipitate a change comparable to the industrial revolution' — being developed by 2025, and a 50% chance of it being developed by 2033.”

The model's 10%-by-2025 leg did not come in — no industrial-revolution-scale transformation occurred by 2025 — but the headline 50%-by-2033 estimate resolves at the end of 2033. TIME notes Epoch researchers themselves expect slower progress than the model implies.