“In our median projection, we expect enough manufacturing capacity to produce 100 million H100-equivalent GPUs for AI training by 2030, sufficient to power a 9e29 FLOP training run — even after accounting for GPUs being split between multiple AI labs and in part dedicated to serving models.”

Epoch's uncertainty range spans 20M-400M H100-equivalents (1e29-5e30 FLOP); resolves against actual AI accelerator production and single-run scale in 2030.