“There is this whole spectrum of crazy futures. But the one that I feel we're almost guaranteed to get — this is a strong statement to make — is one where, at the very least, you get a drop in white collar workers at some point in the next five years. I think it's very likely in two, but it seems almost overdetermined in five.”

Sholto DouglasResearcher

AI researcher, Anthropic (previously Google DeepMind)

Douglas argued the decline would happen even if algorithmic progress stalled, because existing models are already good enough for many white-collar tasks given the right data; Trenton Bricken agreed with the five-year timeline.