“We haven't yet demonstrated long-running agentic performance. You're seeing the first stumbling steps of that now, and should see much more conclusive evidence of that basically by the end of the year, with real software engineering agents doing real work.”

Sholto DouglasResearcher

Researcher (RL scaling), Anthropic

By the end of 2025 agentic coding tools such as Claude Code and OpenAI's Codex agents were in broad production use doing genuine multi-step software engineering work, which meets the bar Douglas set. The related forecast he and Bricken made about reliable general computer-use agents ('go do my taxes') remained clearly unmet, so only the software-engineering half of their outlook landed.