“[On how long until an AI is as good as one of Phil Tetlock's superforecasters:] A year ago, I said two to three years. Right now, I'm going to say one to two years, which is the same prediction. I think you're way too pessimistic in your timetable.”
Economist, Professor of Economics at George Mason University; host of Conversations with Tyler; author of Marginal Revolution
Said Jul 23, 2025Deadline Jul 23, 2027Conversations with Tyler, Ep. 251, 'Nate Silver on Life's Mixed Strategies' (recorded July 23, 2025; published August 13, 2025)
Deadline is mid-2027. The Forecasting Research Institute's October 2025 ForecastBench update judged Cowen closer to the mark than Silver, with extrapolation implying parity by late 2026; as of the January 2026 leaderboard superforecasters still led the best models by about 0.017 Brier points.