AI Prediction Index

One prediction, on the record

“A task I'm pretty sure AIs can't do today and probably still won't be able to do as of Dec 31 2026 (I give it only about a 20% chance): organize a typical-complexity wedding with 100 guests — find a suitable venue that meets the budget and constraints, and handle the rest of the planning.”

Member of technical staff, METR; author of Planned Obsolescence

Said Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026Planned Obsolescence, 'AI predictions for 2026', 14 January 2026

In her 13 August 2026 mid-year scoring ('Hurtling through 2026'), the wedding-planning prediction had not been falsified.