“A task I think is less likely (about 20%) by Dec 31 2026: get a win rate in the upcoming Slay the Spire 2 comparable to a top player who's been playing for 50 hours — assuming no pre-training on guides for the game, a generic harness, and no game-specific fine-tuning.”

As of August 2026 not falsified: the Agentic STS project used a highly game-specific harness and its agents (6/10 runs at Ascension 0, 0/21 at Ascension 2) remained well below top human level.