“About 80% confidence: by Dec 31 2026 AI will be able to play Pokemon or a similarly difficult video game at least as well as a typical ten year old, with no special fine-tuning and only a generic scaffold that doesn't do any more hand-holding than the Claude Plays Pokemon scaffold.”
Said Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026Planned Obsolescence, 'AI predictions for 2026', 14 January 2026 (mid-year scoring in 'Hurtling through 2026', 14 August 2026)
Unresolved as of Cotra's 13 August 2026 mid-year scoring.