“Unrecoverable loss of control by the end of 2026: 0.5%. By this, I mean a situation in which some population of AI systems is operating autonomously without being subject to the control of any human or organization, and is robust against even highly-coordinated efforts by the US military to destroy it or bring it back under control.”

Cotra restated this ~0.5% figure when rescoring her forecasts in August 2026.