“About 80% confidence: by Dec 31 2026 AI will solve the hardest problem in the 2026 IMO (models got gold in the 2025 IMO but all failed to solve problem 6, which is typically the hardest problem in any IMO).”
Said Jan 14, 2026Deadline Dec 31, 2026Planned Obsolescence, 'AI predictions for 2026', January 14, 2026
Formally open until Dec 31, 2026, but effectively already achieved: Cotra reported in August 2026 that at the July 2026 IMO in Shanghai multiple AI systems scored a perfect 42/42.