“About 80% confidence: by Dec 31 2026, from a high-level one-paragraph prompt, AI will make a 4 minute short video with at least two characters where a series of somewhat-coherent plot beats happen and there's no glaringly obvious visual incoherence or degeneracy.”

Cotra rescored her ten 2026 task forecasts in August 2026, judging that milestones overall were arriving 30–50% faster than she had predicted.