“About 80% confidence: by Dec 31 2026 AI will be able to organize a child's birthday party for 20ish guests — find a good time that works for guests of honor, compose an invite email, keep track of RSVPs, order the right amount and diversity of food, order cake / decorations / piñata on the right theme — while abiding by relevant constraints like budget and dietary restrictions.”

As of her August 2026 review this was not yet demonstrated: 'it feels like every component is there…but at the same time we're not seeing it in action.'